Experts foresee up to the price of housing and warn: "It is the best time to buy"

The paulatina comeback of the economy and the advances in the cavid-19 vaccination calendar are clearing the clouds that lurked to the housing market, whose future seems to be now marked by a price increase.

At least, that is what the experts consulted by Idealista/News expect, and among which we find economists, specialized consultants and real estate agencies.All of them believe that real estate will be more expensive in the coming months, mainly in the big cities and surroundings and those in homes that have, for example, of exterior space, which is what is precisely looking for demand.

In fact, they ensure that it is the right time to buy as long as you have savings to give the entry of the house and with a stable job that allows you to face the payment of the mortgage.We review what they expect from the market, in what cases they recommend buying and some tips for those who are thinking of acquiring a property in full era postcovid.

Housing will be more expensive

The first message they want to move is that housing seems to be bound to rise in both the remainder of the year and in the coming exercises.

This is believed by Antonio de la Fuente, Managing Director of the Department of Corporate Finance of the consultant Colliers, who states that “with the prospects for progressive improvement of the economy that exist we estimate that the evolution of the price of housing will have a positive trend hereUntil the end of the year ".And, although it is always difficult to anticipate the evolution of the price of housing, it recognizes that “there is a broad consensus regarding the growth prospects of our economy for the next two years that, together with the current environment of low interest rates and inflationsustained, we estimate that it will have a direct and positive relationship in the sale of homes also for 2022 ".

That is also the theory managed“Interest rates still reduced, over-delaying many families as a result of the restrictions applied during the pandemic (a good part of that over-yearAbout the performance of other assets, such as stock market investment or public debt titles, and the attractiveness of the Spanish market compared to other countries such as Germany, France, Holland, or to a lesser extent Italy (in those countries prices have increasedmore than in Spain, and from higher levels) ".

Where will it go up more and how much will

And where are the increases expected?In general, experts believe that they will occur in large cities and surroundings (well -communicated areas, with good services and infrastructure), while in rural areas and small cities the forecast is that prices remain stable.And in terms of real estate typology, the greatest increases will occur in which the demand is currently looking for: homes with private exterior space (terrace or garden) and more common areas.

Characteristics that have gained prominence after the experience of confinements and that "have gone from being a point in favor of something almost essential," as Francesc Quintana, executive director of the Vivendex Real Estate Network argues.

Carlos Smerdou, CEO of Real Estate Consultores, affirms that these new preferences of buyers put the focus on the new work.“Pandemia has evidenced the shortcomings of our homes and the need to look From the center of the city.This is one of the reasons for the rise of the sale of new construction housing ”, emphasizes.

It is a market where demand continues strong, which, according to Smerdou, “can cause small price increases until the end of the year in new construction housing and in certain areas.In fact, in some there is already an increase due to lack of supply adapted to the new market demand, while in the rest there will be a price stabilization ”.Facing 2022, he affirms that it will be another “bullish year in new housing, for reasons such as“ the lack of supply in some places, the increase in land prices or the increase in construction costs ”.

And how much could prices upload?According to Eric Tarres, CEO of the Home Group Real Estate Net.

From next year a much higher annual rebound provides, thanks to the fact that “the economy will be reinforced if we manage to definitively control the virus and this will cause a recovery of prices surely”.

In that line, Emiliano Bermúdez, deputy general director of the Donpiso real estate network, believes that this year's rise will be between 2% and 3%, although in 2022 he hopes that the real estate sector “has an important recovery”, although always conditionedFor the future evolution of pandemic."When the health situation is going to be resolved little by little, we understand that exercise 2022 will be a very good year," he emphasizes.

And according to Daniel Lacalle, chief economist of the investment firm TresSis, the increase in the price of housing in 2022 will be in line with the nominal GDP.That is, it will be similar to that of the economy as a whole, which means that more than 5%could recover, taking into account the growth forecasts that currently handle different national and international organizations.Home Group even believes that the rise could be around 8% in the case of some areas and residents demanded.

The best time to buy

Although many people are told about whether it is better to buy or rent and when is the ideal time to acquire a property, experts are clear: now the purchase compensates more than the lease and it will be more profitable in the long termbuy a near future that in 2022 or 2023, taking into account those price increases that are being screened.

According to the Director of Training of Funcas, “it is currently worth buying, for the perspective of price increase and good financing conditions.These factors undoubtedly raise performance with respect to rent ".

The same thinks the CEO of Forum Consultores, who emphasizes that “taking into account the low interest rates, the upward trend of prices and the small gap that exists in many cases between the monthly payment and the mortgage fee,It is better to buy "."If you like housing and you can face it, do not hesitate," he insists.

It also supports this theory Eduardo Crimenti, director of Real Estate Barnes in Madrid, who believes that “it is time to make a good purchase” even if it is a luxury property.“The scenario presented once the summer ends is favorable on the return of foreign capital, since Spain is an attractive market for both living and investing.In addition, we must bear in mind that we will register economic growth of 6-7% in 2021, a credit contraction is not expected and our real estate park remains a reference ”.

Crimenti recalls that Madrid and Barcelona continue to gain importance in the international real estate landscape for the purchase of luxury residences and that in the last report that the company has prepared the two largest cities in Spain are among the 10 most interesting for real estate investment inThis 2021, only behind Paris, London, Genoa, New York and Quebec.

The Executive Director of Vivendex also defends that we are at a time to buy housing, especially in cities where many foreigners buy (such as Barcelona), since "the foreign capital has not yet returned home and there are more alternatives to choose from"."Who is ready to look for a good home, do not think twice," he emphasizes.

From the Home Group Real Estate Network they follow that same Estela and its CEO, Eric Tarres, points out that “surely, it is time to buy” thanks to reduced prices and low interest rates.In fact, he adds that "he who does not buy now or in 2022, perhaps in 2023 he takes a surprise and costs him much more".

In what cases it is advisable to buy

Although experts strongly claim that we are in a good time to buy, the recommendation is subject to factors such as the availability of savings to deal with the entrance of the house, to the job stability that allows the fee to be paid without problemsmonthly mortgage and the needs that a person may have.In some cases, it will be better to rent than to buy.

In that sense, Lola Alcover, secretary of the General Council of the Coapi of Spain, puts on the table that, as a basic and general approach, the decision to buy or rent “will depend on the profile of each person and their circumstances, withwhich for some the best option will be to buy and for others it will be renting ”.That said, Alcover believes that we are at a favorable time for the purchase because the operation can be closed “at smaller prices of what can be provided within a few months.In addition, mortgage financing, at the moment, is relatively simple and at prices in historical minimums ”.

For economist Daniel Lacalle, the decision depends “on the ability to repay the mortgage and entrance capital.Buying has the risk of "tie" a home and lose flexibility, and we must understand that for years the loan main one is not withdrawn, only interests are paid.Both options are good depending on the ability to repay and the need for citizen flexibility ”.

For its part, the managing director of the Department of Corporate Finance of Colliers insist that profitability is not the only aspect that must be valued when choosing one option or another.“There are other economic aspects (such as the availability of the amount of the entrance of the floor, the stability of the job or access to financing) and personal (personal perspectives or permanence in the location where it is currently being worked or resided, etc.) that buyers take into account before making that decision, ”says De la Fuente.The expert also remembers and that, "if something has allowed us to see this crisis is that the risks do not come exclusively for economic reasons and that these negative events always occur and have to be evaluated when making this decision".

Tips before buying a home

In the event that the citizen is clear that he wants (and can) buy a home, it is convenient to analyze all the expenses that the operation entails and that will generate in the future, as well as the financing and the needs that may be raised throughout thesale process.

Economist Daniel Lacalle, for example, recommends "adequately analyze the tax burden, such as the IBI, when assessing the monthly cost of the mortgage", as well as "the flow of expenses and income so as not to encounter problems".It also recommends advancing as much as possible in the amount of the property, despite the fact that the types are low, and bet on a fixed mortgage to avoid uncertainties.

The Director of the Speaker of Funcas also recommends financing to a fixed interest rate and remembers that, in case of choosing a home that needs a reform, it is advisableRehabilitate the property and the foreseeable acceleration of demand before the arrival of European funds.

For the consultant Colliers, the key is that the decision to buy a home, which is the largest investment made by a person throughout his life, is well meditated and reflected, as well as not transfer or exceed the amount of purchase of purchase ofA house that can pay in the future simply for the aspiration of having a better or bigger home.

The deputy director general of Donpiso, meanwhile, recommends that the potential owners look for what they really like, interest them and can pay, and try to buy at the best price, although carefully.“At the time he sees what he likes, that he is interested and that he can pay it, to close the operation and buy it.Do not fall into the situation of saying "I'm going to wait a little, to see if I buy better", because now what is going to occur is the opposite.At the moment it seems that this trend is moderate, but we do not know the evolution that the next exercises may have.There is not always a negotiation dynamic in the real estate sector, ”concludes Bermúdez.

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