Encounters What values do you advise investing this summer?

Sara Carbonell

So I am looking for animation files right now. https://t.co/8bbMEcmOA2 Looking for this old dance. Perhaps from For… https://t.co/G4rV7ZWAOc

— Kesirae | The Goat Horde | ENVTuber Sat Apr 24 00:14:05 +0000 2021

General Manager of CMC Markets Spain

What recommendations can you give me to invest in CFDs? What stocks would you try to avoid in a portfolio? Which are the sectors with the best prospects in the medium and long term? Sara Carbonell, general director of CMC Markets Spain, answered your questions on July 12, 2021.

Manuel_anton1. Hi, Sara, does Repsol have a run left?

10:37 Hi Manuel, I'm glad to see you here. Well, due to fundamentals, there are signs that indicate that it may continue to have potential. In fact, Morningstar (it is the fundamental analysis that is available on our Next Generation platform) gives it a fair value of 12.33, which means more than 25% revaluation. Technically, 50% of the Fibonacci has regressed from the entire fall that began in January 2020, this level of the 50% retracement is at 9.70, the level where it is moving now. The next retracement (61.80%) is at 10.80, it should close above in weekly candles to give a possible bullish signal. On the other hand, the results of the first quarter are solid, with a NAB of 648M well above the estimate; This was possible thanks to the economic recovery, and its impact on oil and gas prices. Also to the reduction of production and general costs, which had a positive impact on the operating result. The renewables strategy is also a success. What will mark its evolution this summer will be crude oil prices. Tensions between producers, particularly Emirates vs. Arabia could bring negative consequences on prices (due to a unilateral increase in production in the Emirates) and that would be penalized by the market, so the geoploitic part must be closely monitored. Regarding demand, we continue to see better-than-expected weekly booking data in the US, which confirms the strength in demand. Next July 29 we will know the results of Q2 and we already know that there has been a reduction in production and logically an intense recovery in the average price of a barrel vs. the previous year (covid crisis), an increase in the refining margin is also expected compared to the first quarter. All in all, the company is solid, but let's not stop watching the geopolitical part that could impact world production. I hope I have helped you, thanks for your question!

Manuel_anton2. I would like to know what you think of the evolution of the American bond (if it is going to fall or rise) and if there is a CFD for this bond and how much is the minimum income in this specific CFD

11:00That is a good question , we are between two completely opposite scenarios: -On the one hand we have the economic recovery on the table, which means in the USA that there may be an increase in inflation (even more so)- which could effectively bring forward the date of the interest rate hikes ( set for 2023). This would lead us to see falls in the price of the bond (yield rises); this is what we have seen this year since January, where the yield reached 1.67%. -On the other hand, there is fear of a health crisis again, due to the new delta variant. The Covid crisis has not been fully resolved and a setback in this would mean a setback in economic activity, so we would return to a situation of expansive central bank policies, and therefore falls in debt prices. You have to watch the CPI data in the USA that will be published tomorrow. So everything will depend on whether we go more to scenario one or two. At the moment we are seeing the price of the bond rise, it was trading in a bullish channel and it has already exceeded the ceiling of said channel. Of course you can trade CFDs with our Next Generation platform, there is no minimum deposit. A CFD on the T-Note 10Y is equivalent to an investment of about 113 euros. I hope I have helped you, the scenario right now is uncertain and moves between two very different poles. Thanks

Investor_19813. Hi Sara, thanks for being here. Do you think the Fed will have to raise rates before 2023? On the other hand, if a turbulent summer comes, will the volatility CFD go up? I've been thinking about opening a CFD account for months. If I do, is there a minimum income? Is there an opening cost? Can you close whenever you want?

11:06Hello, Regarding the FED, I will copy what I just answered to another user, since it will depend on the economic recovery and the evolution of the Covid:-For a On the other hand, we have the economic recovery on the table, which means in the US that there may be an increase in inflation (even more) - which could effectively bring forward the date of the interest rate hikes (set for 2023). This would lead us to see falls in the price of the bond (yield rises); this is what we have seen this year since January, where the yield reached 1.67%. -On the other hand, there is fear of a health crisis again, due to the new delta variant. The Covid crisis has not been fully resolved and a setback in this would mean a setback in economic activity, so we would return to a situation of expansive central bank policies, and therefore falls in debt prices.We must watch the CPI data in the USA that will be published tomorrow. So everything will depend on whether we go more to scenario one or two. Regarding the summer, yes, I do not rule out turbulence, and therefore increases in volatility. Today volatility is rising 0.83% at this time, which may mean a "busy" day during the session. Regarding the account: there is no minimum deposit, nor opening cost; And of course you can close it whenever you want. If you want to try it first, you can open a "DEMO" account, with 10,000 virtual euros and without risk. It is the same as the real one, so there you can do your tests, operate with volatility, etc. I hope I have helped you, Regards

189919444. Good morning: I have the opinion that after the presentation of results (which I think will be good for the most part) there will be a strong drop in the stock market, motivated by the fact that there will be no good news to discount and even more so if the harshness of the pandemic spreads . Therefore, I think that we should close the candles and wait for this drop to re-enter. What is your opinion about it? What sectors would you enter? Spinning finer in which company would you invest? Thank you very much

11:21Hello, I understand your point of view and it cannot be ruled out, and indeed we are still at a time when the pandemic will be one of the main catalysts for the markets. What I don't agree with is "closing the sails"; think that there are products (and I don't want to "sell my book") that allow you to take short positions. This is not yet internalized for many investors (for many others it is); Taking short positions means hedging the risk of your portfolio or even simply benefiting from market declines. If there is going to be that generalized fall in the stock markets as you say, there will surely be an increase in volatility, and one can invest in the volatility itself (both by buying and with short positions- that is, when one thinks that the volatility is going to fall; at times turbulent or falling markets, volatility rises). Regarding sectors, it depends on what we are talking about; In the scenario that you propose, there would be falls in the yield of the debt (therefore a rise in its prices), which benefits the "defensives", so if you believe that this is going to be the scenario, defensive sectors would benefit, and the financial sector (at least in Spain) would be harmed. However, keep in mind that even in this scenario the falls do not have to be as abrupt as those we saw last year during the crisis. So companies like Repsol, for example, could "get rid" of suffering like last year, if the demand for crude oil is maintained. Other companies more alien to that could be the telecos. I will talk about Telefónica in another answer, but it is a name that comes to mind as a company that is showing strength. Thanks

JULIUSEMPORDANES5. Good morning. I have Iberdrola SHARES, which you advise me to keep or sell. Thank you,

11:42 Hi, Thank you for your question. Regarding your position, I cannot advise you, from CMC Markets we do not give advice. I also do not know his time horizon, his appetite for risk or what level he entered. But I can give you my opinion about the company. Iberdrola weathered the Covid crisis quite well, let's remember that it went from a BN of 3,400 million to approximately 3,600 million in 2020 and free cash flow increased from around 1,300 million to almost 2,500 million. In the quarterly (Q1 2021) we have seen a decrease in profit vs. same period of the previous year, but due to lack of extraordinary items (sale of Siemens the previous year). If we exclude the extraordinary, its profit increases by 12%, as well as the Ebitda (despite being impacted by the Covid and the exchange rate). The strong investments that it is carrying out in new projects aimed at generating clean and sustainable energy have not yet increased profitability over ROCE, which is at a level of approximately 5.5%, but it is expected to do so in the coming years. . Let's take into account that it has a project portfolio of 78,000MW, of which 20,000 are offshore wind farms. The investment in Spain of more than 4,000 million until 2025 is aimed at achieving the objectives set in Pniec. A pending issue to achieve this will be cost containment or efficiency and keeping debt levels under control. According to Morningstar, it trades more or less at its "Fair Value" (€10.43), but taking into account that it is moving at its lowest for the year (10.01) and that it reached a maximum of 12.57 at the beginning of January, perhaps we may see some upward volatility in the near term; first looking for €10.5 approx to close the recent bearish gap. If it exceeds it, go for the April highs, around €11.5 approx. But I insistDue to fundamentals and in the long term, the key to expect a rise in the price will be to raise the ROCE of new projects, continue generating cash as up to now, and contain debt and costs. On the other hand, the decisions/guidelines of central banks will impact the price of this type of company in general. Rises in debt yields (fall in bond prices) raise the financing costs of this type of company, and the market penalizes it. So be sure to follow the evolution of debt prices. I hope I have helped you, thank you very much for your question.

MONTECRISTO6. Good morning Sara, given the recovery plans of different governments and their commitment to investing in infrastructure, it seemed interesting to me to join a company like ACS but since I have been following it, it always disappoints despite the great expectations that people have regarding it, what would you tell me about this value? What would you recommend at current prices? Thanks in advance. Regards.

12:17The truth is that ACS has not just started. Last year the falls began before the Covid and although it seemed that the fall was receding (at the beginning of this year it had reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, at 25.91) now it is trading in a bearish channel, leaving closing for below the previous low in weekly candles since May. There is a resistance level at 24.5, should close above in weekly candles to think that it can gain momentum. If that were the entry level, it could also be the Stop Loss level. On the other hand, comment that Morningstar gives it a fair value of 24.05, so we would be talking about a higher price level. With a 10.6% drop in sales, due to the consequences of the health crisis, we highlight According to the latest results, the construction area remained stable, although concessions is highly impacted by Abertis, which contributes negatively to profits. This is because the pre-pandemic level in terms of traffic has not yet been recovered. The evolution of the pandemic and the restrictions is therefore key to the takeoff of the group. We must also add that the debt has increased, so the market demand (as you say) is high. You have to be prudent and watch the levels mentioned above. I hope I have helped you, thank you very much

7. Good morning, how do you see acerinox? Thank you very much

12:56 Hi, Thank you for your question. Well, just today we have heard not very positive news, and it is falling more than 4%. Apparently there are problems with a plant in the USA, which will not be able to carry out smelting operations due to a problem in the supply chain. From Morgan Stanley they say that any problem in this plant (NAS) will weigh on the results of the third quarter. So we must take this news into account for this summer. Apart from this, the forecast for Acerinox is to break a record in results by 2022 thanks to the increase in demand due to the recovery. On the 29th we will know the results, where the share repurchase program is expected to take back the package that was sold to Nippon. After the red candle it left in June, it should close in weekly candles above 10.66, which represents a retracement of half (50% Fibonacci) of that setback. Having heard the NAS news today, let's wait and see what else we know and how it impacts its price. By technician, Arcelor presents the best graphic. Thanks

Manuel8. Hello Sara, I saw you the other day at a meeting about Cryptocurrencies, I understood that you can also invest in them with CFDs? Will go short?? And explain to me about the indices please

13:15 Hi Manuel, I'm glad you asked me about the Cryptos. As I said precisely in said event they are an asset that is there, with their defenders and detractors, but it cannot be denied that they are becoming one more asset. To summarize, I can tell you that the handicap right now is regulation, which will arrive sooner or later (and I see it as something positive) and pollution, since today the electricity used by the miners is very high, so it impacts the environment. In this sense, some platforms are already working on reducing these levels. Last week Goldman Sachs released a report saying that Ethereum will be the next Bitcoin, giving this crypto more importance due to its smart contract platform as well as the speed of transactions on its blockchain (unlike Bitcoin). to your question, yes we do have CFDs available on cryptos. Specifically 14. And of course, you can take short positions.This can be a hedging method (if you have the real cryptos and at a certain point in time they fall) or as a method to profit from price falls. About the indices: we have directly created 3 indices, so that through a single CFD you access several cryptos. For example, the "Popular Crypto" index includes the most popular ones, and the "All Crypto" index includes all of them. We already did this when we launched the share baskets, through which with a single CFD you can access the most representative companies in a sector (5G, Lifestyle, Electric Cars, etc.). Do not hesitate to call us if you have more questions, remember that you can try it through a DEMO account, and of course also remember that it works with leverage, so you must understand the risk. Thank you

MONTECRISTO9. Good morning Sara, what do you think of Mapfre? What can we expect from this value? Would you recommend Buy/Hold/Sell? Thanks in advance. Regards.

13:40I think it has potential, the price target according to MorningStar stands at 2.13. I think the alliance with Iberdrola (Ibermap) and the renewable energy fund will generate attractive returns and confirms its diversification strategy. Where there is some risk is in its currency exposure, which has already penalized it in first-quarter results. Even so, we saw a profit increase of more than 35%, thanks in part to the reinsurance and Assistance business. The commitment is an ROE of 8.5% for 2021, with revenues similar to the previous year. I like the investment in the digital part, the premiums for this channel already represent 7% of the total. Technically, it should close in weekly candles above 1.82, to regain momentum and confirm the upward trend that began in October of last year. Thank you

San Amaro10. Good morning, Sara. I am determined to join Telefónica for a 24-month term, taking its dividend into account and thinking that the share price could rise 25% in that period. WHAT is your opinion? THANK YOU very much for your dedication.

14:07Hello San Amaro, Well, I think it may have potential. There are a number of factors that I like, such as the debt reduction that has been carried out in recent years (which was one of the factors that the market was most closely monitoring), the long-awaited O2 merger or the sale of towers Telxius. Also the entry into new areas, such as the launch of Movistar Musica (to compete with Spotify) or the possible sale of a part of Tech are actions that will bring a return. Precisely the BoA experts gave it a target price of 5.2 last week. Morningstar gives it just under 4.05. Technically, it has been trading in an upward channel since November of last year and there is a key level that is precisely those 4.05 euros. This level is not only resistance, but it is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire decline started a year ago. So if it manages to close above it could continue the momentum to go for 4.89 (the level from which the fall is taken). In my opinion, the management and divestments are correct. I hope I have helped you. Thank you

11. Good morning. Arcelor Mittal possible evolution from 25 euros. Thank you very much.

14:11The graph is better than that of Acerinox. The demand perspective for steel is positive, and technically it comes from an upward trend, although it has been trading sideways since the end of March; the RSI also shows a zone of indefinition (49%) but Morningstar sees potential up to 30, and it is possible that it is on a pause to continue. If it exceeds the €27 level in the upper part of the channel, (an area that has attacked on May 10, 06/01 and 06/11), it could go in search of €30. In any case, the evolution of The economic recovery and the pandemic have a great impact on these companies, so this summer we must not stop monitoring the economic evolution, inflation in the US and infections. Thank you

MLFI12. In relation to cryptocurrencies, this summer could the readjustment experienced again have an exorbitant rise?

14:22Hello MLFI, Well, it will depend on many factors. Last year they acted as a refuge asset against market fluctuations, and if things get complicated this summer, we could see the market move to this type of asset. (This does not mean that they supplant gold as has been said, but it is true that they have been an alternative for many investors, especially last year). The reality is that cryptos are very volatile, and lately their price fluctuates according to the headlines we see in the media. A negative statement from Elon M. will push the price down, and the opposite up. In any case, you should know that with CFDs you can take short positions,so the opportunities will arise in both directions and in both cases it is possible to operate. Let's see what happens with inflation in the US, and the yield of the 10y bond. If we were to see turbulence again this summer, cryptos could appreciate, as an alternative asset to traditional ones. Of course they are not without interest on the part of investors.